# HANDOFF — Nigeria elections pack (nga)

Built **2026-09-03** (America/Chicago). Schema: `/workspace/elections-ingest/SCHEMA.md`.
No git. No Wikipedia sourceUrl. Nulls over invention.

## Files

| File | Rows | Path |
|------|------|------|
| elections.csv | 3 | `/workspace/elections-ingest/nga/elections.csv` |
| people.csv | 319 | `/workspace/elections-ingest/nga/people.csv` |
| money-edges.csv | 0 (header only) | `/workspace/elections-ingest/nga/money-edges.csv` |
| polls.csv | 45 | `/workspace/elections-ingest/nga/polls.csv` |
| SOURCES.md | — | `/workspace/elections-ingest/nga/SOURCES.md` |
| STATS.json | — | `/workspace/elections-ingest/nga/STATS.json` |
| HANDOFF.md | — | `/workspace/elections-ingest/nga/HANDOFF.md` |

## Country chip

- `cycle_status=active` (2027-01-16 is 135 days from 2026-09-03; 91–365 window)
- `date_confidence=confirmed_official` — INEC `/elections/calendar` lists both general-election dates as Scheduled
- Electoral body: INEC — https://inecnigeria.org/

## elections.csv (3 contests)

1. `nga-2027-pres-nass` — Presidency + National Assembly — **2027-01-16** — `presidential+legislative` — active / confirmed_official
2. `nga-2027-guber-sha` — Governorship + State Houses — **2027-02-06** — `legislative` (closest enum; notes flag off-cycle governors) — active / confirmed_official
3. `nga-2023-pres-nass` — last national cycle — **2023-02-25** — IReV as source — `sitting` + last_election note. 2023-03-18 guber/SHA is mentioned in notes only.

Campaigns for presidential/NASS began **2026-08-19** (revised timetable / Electoral Act 2026).

## people.csv

- **319 incumbents** from the official NASS DataTables API (`nass-{id}`).
  - Senate: **74** (API `recordsTotal` 74 / constitutional 109)
  - House: **245** (API 246 minus 1 blank-name row / constitutional 360)
- `role=incumbent`, `incumbent=true`, `election_id=nga-2027-pres-nass`
- `bio_text` empty (no official INEC/party bios pulled)
- `photo_url` is the NASS image path the portal itself uses; some IDs 404 — do not treat a broken image as a missing member
- **No 2027 declared candidates.** INEC has not published a machine-readable candidate list on the public site. Media names (Tinubu/Atiku/Obi etc.) were not added.

Do not fuzzy-match these names onto money later. There is no money file.

## money-edges.csv

Honest empty. CCB declarations are not a public bulk file. No INEC party-finance CSV. Do not invent NGN donations.

## polls.csv

- **45 option-rows**
- Waves: 14 (dp-cdt-expect, dp-cdt-perf, nga-noi-2025-06, nga-noi-2025-07, nga-noi-2025-08, nga-noi-2025-09, nga-noi-2025-10, nga-noi-2025-11, nga-noi-2026-01, nga-noi-2026-02, nga-noi-2026-03, nga-noi-2026-05, nga-noi-2026-06, sbm-2026-06)
- Orgs: NOIPolls (monthly governance approval), Dataphyte CDT, SBM Intelligence (extra)
- ANAP and Stears/Bloomberg: **no 2025–2026 published tables found**
- Sample_n / MoE left blank unless the article printed them (Dataphyte n=1423; SBM n=829; no MoE invented)
- SBM net-favourability rows use `response_pct` as the **net score** (can be negative); notes say so
- Long format only; leftover/neutral not invented when a post published only Approve

## Gaps / next ingest

1. Re-fetch INEC candidate publication (Form EC9 / nomination portal export) when a public file appears; then add `role=candidate` / `both` with official ids.
2. NASS API is short of 109+360 — refresh `get_legislators` periodically; do not backfill from Wikipedia or nigeriaopendata.
3. If INEC or CCB ever ships a bulk finance/asset file, fill `money-edges.csv` in **filed unit (NGN)** with regulator `edge_type`.
4. Re-check ANAP + Stears/Bloomberg before the next poll cut; they were empty in this window.
5. 2023 IReV is PU-scan images, not a national candidate-totals CSV — do not scrape it into people or polls.

## Join keys

- People: `person_id` = `nass-{official NASS id}`
- Elections: `election_id` as above
- Polls: `election_id=nga-2027-pres-nass` (approval / 2027 sentiment attached to the national contest)

## results.csv

- Shipped an **honest header-only file (0 data rows)** for `nga-2023-pres-nass` (2023-02-25). No presidential or National Assembly office rows were fabricated.
- Official source checked: INEC IReV presidential election page, https://inecelectionresults.ng/pres/elections/63f8f25b594e164f8146a213?type=pres, and its state route, https://inecelectionresults.ng/elections/63f8f25b594e164f8146a213?state=1. Both returned HTTP 200, but neither publishes a machine-readable candidate-by-state totals table: the election page is a state/LGA/ward navigation layer for polling-unit result-sheet scans and currently renders `Submitted results 0` on the presidential summary. The state route likewise returned only the application shell, not state candidate totals. Therefore there is no reliable state-level official table to parse into schema rows.
- Intended granularity was state (36 states + FCT), office `president`, with NASS constituencies if feasible. Coverage remains empty because reliably aggregating scan images was out of scope and would risk transcription error. `person_id` is not populated. IReV footer states **All Rights Reserved**; no row-level license assertion was made in the empty CSV.

---

## results.csv — 2023 presidential state returns: second attempt (2026-09-03, America/Chicago)

**Outcome: still an honest header-only file (0 data rows).** Header rewritten and byte-verified against the
`results.csv` header in `/workspace/elections-ingest/SCHEMA.md`. Nothing else in the pack was touched.

**Bottom line:** INEC has never published a candidate-by-state (36 states + FCT) table for the 2023
presidential election in any parseable form. The official INEC record of that election exists at exactly two
granularities — **national** (all 18 candidates) and **geopolitical zone** (4 leading parties). Neither is a
state. Every state-by-state table in circulation traces to media transcription of the National Collation
Centre announcements (Vanguard, TheNigeriaLawyer, Channels, etc.) or to third-party aggregators
(Dataphyte, GitHub IReV scrapers). Those are excluded by the brief, so no rows were written.

### The official document that DOES exist (and what it contains)

- **Title:** *Report of the 2023 General Election* — Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC),
  approved for publication at the Commission's meeting of 22 February 2024; 526 pages, 13 chapters,
  60 tables. PDF metadata: Adobe InDesign 17.4, created 2024-02-23.
- **Original official URL:** `https://inecnigeria.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/2023-GENERAL-ELECTION-REPORT-1.pdf`
  → **HTTP 404 live** (INEC retired the WordPress `/wp-content/` tree when it migrated to the current Nuxt site).
- **Retrieved via** `https://web.archive.org/web/20240327052019id_/https://inecnigeria.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/2023-GENERAL-ELECTION-REPORT-1.pdf`
  → HTTP 200, 17,422,886 bytes, 526 pages (page count matches INEC's own announcement).
- **Annexure 2, "Result of the Presidential Election Held on 25th February 2023"** (printed p.418 = PDF p.457):
  a **single 914x1242 px, 144 ppi JPEG with no text layer**. `pdftotext -layout` returns only the heading.
  Read visually, it is the **DECLARATION OF RESULTS, 2023 Presidential Election – 1st March 2023** graphic:
  18 candidates with **national** vote totals only (Tinubu Bola Ahmed / APC 8,794,726 marked ELECTED;
  Abubakar Atiku / PDP 6,984,520; Obi Peter Gregory / LP 6,101,533; Musa Mohammed Rabiu Kwankwaso /
  NNPP 1,496,687), plus registered 93,469,008, PVCs collected 87,209,007, accredited 25,286,616,
  votes cast 24,965,218, valid 24,025,940, rejected 939,278, turnout 27.05%. **No state column exists.**
- **Table 9.6** (printed p.162, real text layer): *Zonal Performance of Four Leading Political Parties in
  Respect of the 25% Threshold* — scores and % for APC / LP / NNPP / PDP across the six geopolitical zones.
  Cross-checked: the six zone figures sum **exactly** to 8,794,726 / 6,101,533 / 1,496,687 / 6,984,520,
  i.e. the declared national totals. So the report's numbers reconcile — the granularity is simply zone,
  not state.
- **Negative check:** a programmatic scan of the full 526-page text layer for state-row tables (state name +
  4 or more comma-grouped numbers) returned only logistics / registration / PVC / party-agent tables, and the
  distinctive state figures found in media tables (997,279 Kano NNPP; 584,621 Anambra LP; 466,272 Plateau;
  582,454 Lagos; 8,914 Abia) appear **nowhere** in the report. Annexures 3-6 cover governorship, senatorial,
  federal- and state-constituency results; **there is no per-state presidential annexure.**
- **Not shipped as rows** (deliberate): the national 18-candidate table and the 6-zone table are both official
  and both reconcile, but neither is `constituency = state (36 + FCT)`, which is what this layer requires.
  Writing zone rows into a state-keyed layer would corrupt downstream joins. **Owner decision** — if a
  coarser official cut is wanted, Table 9.6 (zones) is verified and ready to transcribe, and Annexure 2
  (national) is legible.

### Everything tried, with exact statuses

INEC main site (current Nuxt build):

| URL | Result |
|-----|--------|
| `https://inecnigeria.org/` | 200 — Nuxt SPA, no document links in HTML |
| `https://inecnigeria.org/resources` | 200 — "Resources & Electoral Document Hub", **289 resources total**; full catalogue is embedded in `/_nuxt/B9h-xPk6.js` (248 document paths under `/documents/resources/{articles,based,conference-papers,data-protection,downloads,eosc,newsletters,nomination-forms,party-forms,press-release,rac}/`). Categories: Conference Papers 89, RACs 37, Nomination Forms 19, Party Forms 2, Newsletters 40, Downloads & Plans 39, EOSC 5, Press Releases & Gazettes 14, Gallery 5. **No 2023 General Election Report, no 2023 results document, no Form EC8D/EC8E.** The only result-titled items are 2013-2022 off-cycle declarations and `2019-GE-PRESIDENTIAL-ELECTION-RESULTS.pdf`-era files. |
| `https://inecnigeria.org/documents/resources/downloads/DECLARATION-OF-RESULTS-Layout-1.pdf` | 200, 20,039,976 bytes, 60 pages, **no text layer** (pdftotext = 60 chars). Rendered page 1: *"Declaration Of Result — FCT Area Council Election, 12th February 2022"*. CorelDRAW 2020, created 2022-02-21. **Wrong election; predates 2023.** |
| `/downloads-all/`, `/downloads-all/report-of-the-2019-general-election/`, `/resources/downloads`, `/documents`, `/library`, `/publications`, `/reports`, `/elections`, `/elections/results`, `/2023-general-elections-updates/`, `/collation-and-declaration-of-results/`, `/sitemap.xml`, `/robots.txt` | **all HTTP 404** (Nuxt 404 shell, ~39.7 KB) |
| `/documents/resources/downloads/2023-GE-PRESIDENTIAL-ELECTION-RESULTS.pdf`, `.../2019-GE-PRESIDENTIAL-ELECTION-RESULTS.pdf`, `.../2023-GENERAL-ELECTION-REPORT.pdf`, `.../2023-GENERAL-ELECTION-REPORT-1.pdf` | **404** (guessed paths on the new tree; none exist) |
| `https://www.inecnigeria.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/REVIEW-OF-THE-2023-GENERAL-ELECTION-1.pdf` | **404 live**; retrieved via Wayback (`20251103024344id_`) → 200, 11,122,250 bytes, 76 pages. Narrative review only, **no result tables** (no occurrence of the national or any state totals). |
| Footer "Election Results" quick link (from `/_nuxt/BtCkgZ6s.js`) | points to `https://inecelectionresults.ng/` — i.e. INEC itself routes all result enquiries to IReV |

INEC IReV — **API-level** probe this time, not just the HTML shell that the previous run checked.
Endpoint discovered in `https://inecelectionresults.ng/main.f5b6ab32c0c08cea.js`:
`getEndpoint()` = `https://dolphin-app-sleqh.ondigitalocean.app/api/v1/` (the bundle's other bases
`lv001-r.inecelectionresults.ng` and `irev-v2.herokuapp.com` **no longer resolve — DNS failure**).

| API call (election id `63f8f25b594e164f8146a213`) | Result |
|---|---|
| `GET elections/63f8f25b594e164f8146a213` | 200, 1,175 bytes — `"full_name":"Presidential election - 2023-02-25"`, and **`"parties":[]`** (no party/candidate objects at all) |
| `GET elections/{id}/result/stats` | 200, 1,357 bytes — `{"pus":176846,"documents":167443,"latest":{…}}`. Counts of uploaded scans plus one sample PU document URL. **No vote numbers of any kind.** |
| `GET elections/{id}/lga/state/1` | 200, 118,852 bytes — LGA / ward / PU geography for Abia. **No votes.** |
| `GET elections/{id}/lga` | 200, 5,734,802 bytes — nationwide geography. **No votes.** |
| `GET election-reports/election/{id}` | **404** `Cannot GET /api/v1/election-reports/election/...` (and the front-end component it feeds, `app-result-report`, only ever renders an *"Uploaded / Not Uploaded"* chart) |
| `GET elections/latest` | **404** `{"success":false,"error_code":6,"message":"Unable to complete request"}` |

So IReV is confirmed at the data layer, not just visually: **167,443 Form EC8A polling-unit scan PDFs
(images), 176,846 PUs, zero numeric aggregation.** Recovering state totals from it would require OCR of
167k photographed forms — not attempted, and digits would not be recoverable at high confidence.

Other official channels:

- `https://web.archive.org/web/20230302000000/https://www.inecnigeria.org/2023-general-elections-updates/`
  → 200. INEC's own election-night microsite: its "Election Results" quick link points **only** to
  `https://inecelectionresults.ng/`. No numeric page of its own.
- **INEC published a state/LGA/ward presidential results viewer for 2019** —
  `https://www.inecnigeria.org/2019-presidential-election-results/` (Wayback 200, 2019-11-14, with
  `view/lgaView.php`, `view/wardView.php`). **The 2023 equivalent was never published:**
  `https://www.inecnigeria.org/2023-presidential-election-results/` → Wayback capture 2025-02-19 returns
  **HTTP 404** (the `http://` variant 302s into it). This is the cleanest single piece of evidence that
  INEC dropped the state-level results publication for 2023.
- `https://inecnews.com/?s=presidential+election+results` (INEC's official newspaper) → 200, **1 hit**, a
  2018 article about youth turnout. No result tables.
- Wayback CDX enumeration of every PDF ever hosted on `inecnigeria.org` (3,000 rows, filtered for
  `result|EC8|collation|declaration|elected|summary`) → the only presidential results file INEC ever posted is
  `2019-GE-PRESIDENTIAL-ELECTION-RESULTS.pdf` (2019/03, 2019/10, re-posted 2024/05). **No 2023 analogue, and
  no Form EC8D / EC8E scan for 2023, has ever been on the domain.**
- No Nigerian government gazette carrying the 2023 presidential returns was located; INEC gazettes party
  registers and poll notices, not results.
- National Bureau of Statistics: no 2023 election-results dataset.

### Explicitly refused as sources

Vanguard, TheNigeriaLawyer, Channels TV, Premium Times, BBC (media transcriptions of the collation
announcements), `election.dataphyte.com`, GitHub IReV scrapes (`mykeels/inec-presidential-elections-2023`
et al.), and Wikipedia. Several of these carry complete, plausible 36-state + FCT tables that reconcile to
the declared national totals — they were **not** used, per the brief. `license` was left unasserted because
no rows were written; note the INEC portal footer reads "All Rights Reserved" and IReV likewise.

### If someone retries this

1. Watch for INEC re-publishing `2023-GENERAL-ELECTION-REPORT-1.pdf` (or a state-level results page) on the
   new `/documents/resources/...` tree — the whole document catalogue is enumerable from
   `https://inecnigeria.org/_nuxt/B9h-xPk6.js`, so a diff of that file is a cheap monitor.
2. A **certified true copy of Form EC8E (presidential)** would be the correct primary artifact and would
   carry state rows. It is not on inecnigeria.org and not in IReV. If one surfaces (INEC FOI release, or an
   INEC-published CTC), that is the file to parse.
3. Do **not** re-probe IReV's HTML pages or its API expecting numbers — both are now documented dead ends
   above, with the exact endpoints and payload shapes.

## results.csv — official national and geopolitical-zone returns (2026-09-03, America/Chicago)

The header-only file was replaced with 42 official rows from INEC's *Report of the 2023 General Election*: 18 national candidate rows from Annexure 2 and 24 geopolitical-zone party rows from Table 9.6. These results are **NATIONAL and GEOPOLITICAL-ZONE granularity, NOT state**. They must not be joined to a state-keyed layer; no state rows were invented.

Validation performed:

- The 18 transcribed Annexure 2 vote totals sum to **24,025,940**, exactly matching the report's printed valid-votes figure. The arithmetic gate passed.
- Table 9.6 six-zone sums matched the declared national totals for all four parties: APC **8,794,726**, LP **6,101,533**, NNPP **1,496,687**, PDP **6,984,520**. All four zone-sum checks passed.
- No candidate was unverified; all 18 candidate rows were legible in the 400 dpi rendering of PDF page 457.
- `person_id` is blank everywhere because INEC supplied no regulator-issued person IDs joining these result rows to `people.csv`; fuzzy name matching is barred.
- National `vote_share` is blank because Annexure 2 prints no per-candidate percentages. Zone `vote_share` preserves the percentages printed in Table 9.6.
- License used on every row: `INEC official publication; rights reserved by INEC - attribution required, redistribution not explicitly licensed`.

Source: archived official PDF URL recorded in `SOURCES.md` and in every result row. The source is the official INEC publication, not a media transcription, aggregator, Wikipedia page, or IReV scrape.