# Bolivia (bol) — HANDOFF

## Settled next-election call
| field | value |
|---|---|
| next national contest | **2030 general — year precision only** |
| `date_confidence` | **`constitutional_due`** |
| `cycle_status` | **`distant`** |
| `election_id` | `bol-gen-2030` |

`election_date` is deliberately **year-precision (`2030`)**: no month/day is set and OEP has issued no
convocatoria yet. Constitución Política del Estado art. 168 sets a 5-year presidential term; Rodrigo
Paz Pereira took office 8 Nov 2025, so the next general falls in 2030. A specific date would have been
invented, so it was not.

`cycle_status=sitting` on the two 2025 rows — confirmed by arithmetic. The runoff was **2025-10-19**,
which is **319 days** before 2026-09-03, well outside the 120-day `just_held` window. The Asamblea
Legislativa Plurinacional elected 17 Aug 2025 is live and Paz is sitting president.

## Contests filed (3)
| election_id | date | date_confidence | cycle_status | what |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| `bol-gen-2025-r1` | 2025-08-17 | confirmed_official | sitting | Presidencia + Asamblea, 1st round |
| `bol-gen-2025-r2` | 2025-10-19 | confirmed_official | sitting | Presidencial runoff — **Paz won** |
| `bol-gen-2030` | 2030 | constitutional_due | distant | next general |

No presidential ticket cleared the constitutional threshold (50%, or 40% with a 10-point lead) in the
1st round, so Bolivia's **first-ever presidential runoff** was triggered per the official OEP cómputo.

## people.csv — 172 rows
`person_id` scheme: **a slug derived from the official full name, not a numeric official id** — neither
diputados.gob.bo, the OEP senate separata, nor the OEP candidacy list expose a stable numeric id on
their public pages, so a normalized-name slug is used consistently across all 172 rows and this is a
site-scheme id, not a regulator-issued number. SAY SO to any downstream consumer.
- **128 titular deputies** (of 130 official seats) — 2 titulares had no reliable titular/suplente flag
  in the official roster at fetch time (see gap below) and were excluded rather than guessed.
- **36 titular senadores** (4 × 9 departments) from the OEP's own seat-assignment separata: PDC 16 /
  LIBRE 12 / UNIDAD 7 / APB-SUMATE 1.
- **8 presidential candidates.** Rodrigo Paz Pereira (winner) is flagged `role=both` — he is both a
  2025 `candidate` and the sitting `incumbent` president.
`bio_text`: **110 of 128 deputies** carry verbatim official biographical text, pulled from
diputados.gob.bo's own WordPress REST API and joined on profile URL (an official-id join, not a name
match) — see SOURCES.md. The remaining 18 deputies plus all senators and presidential candidates have
`bio_text` empty because no verbatim official bio was published for them.

## money-edges.csv is EMPTY — 0 rows, by design
The OEP publishes party financing mostly as **public funding disbursements** and campaign-spending
ceilings, not itemized, machine-readable per-donor/per-candidate flows. No downloadable itemized
contributions or expenditure register (comparable to Chile's SERVEL "Reporte de Aportes") was located
for the 2025 cycle. Rather than approximate this from a PDF table of aggregate figures, the file is
shipped header-only, matching SCHEMA.md's instruction ("If money is PDF-only, leave money-edges.csv
empty and say so").

## results.csv — 639 rows, official OEP sources only
| office | election_id | rows | grain |
|---|---|---|---|
| president | `bol-gen-2025-r1` | 105 | 72 department-level (9 depts × 8 parties) + 33 national/exterior/world-total scope rows |
| lower_chamber | `bol-gen-2025-r1` | 504 | party vote in all 63/63 official uninominal circunscripciones |
| president | `bol-gen-2025-r2` | 30 | 18 department-level (9 depts × 2 finalists) + 12 national/exterior/world-total scope rows |

- Department- and constituency-level rows come from the OEP's own Geoelectoral ArcGIS REST service
  (`geoelectoral.oep.org.bo`), the same geodata OEP uses to render its own results maps.
- National/exterior/world-total scope rows come directly from the cómputo applications' JSON endpoints
  (`computo2025-1v.oep.org.bo`, `computo2025-2v.oep.org.bo`).
- **Legislative results are party-vote-by-uninominal-constituency (the "arrastre" basis for uninominal
  deputy seats), not candidate-level.** The `seats` column is set to 1 on the party the ArcGIS service's
  own `GANADOR` field names as constituency winner, 0 otherwise. `candidate` and `person_id` are blank
  on every legislative row: OEP's own service does not publish individual uninominal candidate names in
  this layer, and the 60 plurinominal (party-list) and 7 special-circumscription deputy seats are **not
  covered** at all — only the 63 uninominal seats have a machine-readable per-constituency return.
- No results for either Senate composition (that comes from the seat-assignment separata used in
  people.csv, not a votes table) — OEP does not publish a separate senatorial vote-return dataset
  distinct from the presidential ticket's department totals under Bolivia's block-vote senate rules.

## polls.csv — 54 rows, 5 published Ipsos CIESMORI waves
All five waves are OEP/SIFDE-filed under art. 21 of Res. TSE-RSP-ADM N° 232/2025 and published by the
OEP itself (not scraped from the pollster or a news aggregator):
| poll_id | rows | field dates | sample_n |
|---|---|---|---|
| `bol-ipsos-ciesmori-2025-05-22` | 13 | 22–26 May 2025 | 2,500 |
| `bol-ipsos-ciesmori-2025-07-05` | 13 | 5–7 Jul 2025 | see notes cell |
| `bol-ipsos-ciesmori-2025-07-25` | 11 | 25–27 Jul 2025 | see notes cell |
| `bol-ipsos-ciesmori-2025-08-02` | 12 | 2–6 Aug 2025 | see notes cell |
| `bol-ipsos-ciesmori-2025-09-18` | 5 | 18–21 Sep 2025 (runoff) | see notes cell |

**Captura Consulting, Focaliza, and Diagnosis produced no citable published topline** (no OEP-filed PDF,
no house-published data page) that could be located — none were filed rather than backed into from
secondary news percentages. 54 rows clears the ">=40 option-rows" floor even with only one house
represented; report the real count rather than padding with the missing three houses.

## Gaps / next steps
- Deputies: 128/130 — 2 seats missing a reliable titular/suplente flag (see SOURCES.md roster note);
  do not treat 128 as "all of the Chamber."
- Legislative results cover only the 63 uninominal seats; the 60 plurinominal + 7 special seats have no
  machine-readable per-party constituency return published by OEP in the sources checked.
- `person_id` is a name-slug, not a regulator-issued id — a future join to any OEP id space (if one is
  ever published) will require a new mapping table, not a straight column rename.
- `money-edges.csv` is intentionally empty; do not backfill it with aggregate PDF figures.